New Year Forecast
Issue 1 – Tuesday 29th December 2020
Thursday 31st December 2020
Thursday will start with the majority of the United Kingdom under a blanket of frost, with air temperatures ranging from 1°C down to -5°C, with the wind chill going from -2°C to -12°C. The coldest temperatures will be seen over the Pennines in Northern England.
By 09:00 when the public will begin to set out there plans for the evening, the feel-like temperature will be bitter with the central stretch of the UK seeing -10°C, with eastern and western areas approximately 5°C warmer by the coastline.
Those hoping it will warm up into the afternoon, it will but the wind chill still remaining below zero, with the air temperature not increasing much over zero, with a high of 4°C for Northern Ireland.
Midnight will see the air temperature around the zero mark for a lot of eastern and central areas, but for southern and western areas temperatures down to -3°C will be seen, whilst the feel-like temperature will be from -4°C down to -10°C.
There will be a band of rain moving from Southern England into France bringing the risk of sleet and snow as it leaves, with cold air flooding in behind. Scattered showers across all other regions will be mostly light and will fall as snow. These showers will generally follow the same track, meaning there will be more areas without snow, than with it.
By 06:00 we see the tail end of the band heading into France, intensify and bring moderate precipitation to North Wales. The coastline will see mostly sleet, but move 10-15 miles inshore this will develop into snow. Scattered showers across all other regions including the south, will fall as snow, albeit light.
Midday will bring a largely dry day to the United Kingdom, with yet more wispy scattered showers across Scotland, with a thin band of precipitation spanning from Northern Ireland down to Wales, this will bring sleet to coastal areas, but for Wales as soon as this hits the higher levels snow will begin to fall again.
18:00 will see precipitation intensifying and merging across Scotland, to bring a large band of mostly snow to Central and Northern Scotland. Northern Ireland will see sleet beginning to turn that bit lumpier, and transition into snowfall. Wales seeing conditions drying up, with scattered showers lingering behind. South west England witnessing mostly sleet, with the mix of rain and snow also depending on the altitude. For now the east remaining dry, but that will change.
00:00 a large band of rain will move into East Anglia and East Midlands, bringing rain, sleet and snow to the area, snow on the leading edge, with rain following in. The increasing precipitation intensification across Scotland will continue, with further heavy snowfall forecast with some disruption possible.
Mostly light wind speeds will be seen across the United Kingdom, between 4 – 20 MPH. Wind gusts will pick-up across Scotland between 18:00 – 00:00 rising to 24 – 36 MPH. Little to no disruption is expected from this increase in wind gusts, but could affect any firework displays taking place.
Friday 1st January 2021
06:00 will see the air temperature at zero or just above for the majority, with only Northern England and Western Scotland expected to take up with a frost, apart from rural villages throughout the UK, seeing temperatures that bit lower. The wind chill is set to remain cold with -2°C down to -8°C expected.
Midday sees the air temperature rise above zero for all areas of the UK bar Western Scotland for the first time in a couple of days, and even East Anglia and the eastern coastline will see the wind chill rising above zero.
18:00 the cold air temperature will begin to flood back in across the UK, bringing minus temperatures to much of the west, including Wales, and beginning to spread into central areas. The wind chill will drive all areas of the United Kingdom below zero, giving it that chilly feeling once again, with -13°C possible for Western Scotland.
00:00 the risk of frost spreads across the United Kingdom, whilst the wind chill holds on it’s freezing grip, with little change from that of 18:00.
03:00 – The band of incoming precipitation from East Anglia, will continue to bring the risk of wintry spells with sleet being the most plausible outcome based on current chart data, this area of precipitation will bring moderate to heavy intensity, so if snow does fall it can be expected to settle. Scotland will continue to see further heavy snowfall falling for the North-West and Central areas, with scattered showers elsewhere, providing a full wintry mix.
06:00 – Southern England will see the heaviest snowfall across the United Kingdom, with rapid intensification with some decent accumulations for the period it lasts, before sleet sweeps in behind. The snow line is very marginal creating a lot of uncertainty over the exact positioning of snow. Coastlines of Scotland will be experiencing sleet, whilst inland snowfall will become heavier with the risk of disruption, especially to the mountain passes, which have already seen disruption in the last couple of weeks.
09:00 – Southern England can expect mostly sleet to fall now, with all hopes of snow being wiped out on the latest chart, with Northern England, seeing more sleet than snow also at this point with the scattered showers pushing down from the south. Similar story to that of 06:00 for Scotland. Northern Ireland seeing further snow inland, but sleet on the coastlines.
12:00 – Precipitation will begin to reduce in intensity across the entire of the United Kingdom. As the showers become lighter and patchy the more likely the shower will fall as snow, as cold air can wrap around the shower. Further bands of rain will be lining up to attack from the east, but will struggle to push in throughout Friday.
18:00 – Further patchy precipitation is expected. The eastern coastline does see the risk of rain, sleet and snow, with inland areas experiencing sleet and snow, with the odd risk of freezing rain.
00:00 – Patchy showers to continue, before Saturday is set to bring yet more precipitation.
Wind speeds again remaining low across the United Kingdom, with no major increase to mention. Wind gusts calming from yesterday back into the twenties, but once again nothing to mention, with conditions remaining mostly settled.