The Atlantic has weakened significantly compared to the previous run. The high pressure system now sat across Europe, helping draw the cold air in from the North Atlantic. The low pressure over Iceland will help drag cold the air down and across the United Kingdom.
The jet stream will be trying to block off the cold air flooding into the United Kingdom, but it looks like it could begin to breakdown on Tuesday 22nd, as it moves south around a low pressure system that sits over the Atlantic.
The high pressure over Europe will once again be trying to drag the cold air down south, and in from the east. This easterly keeps showing signs of appearing, but it keeps pushing back, so the main focus is to the Atlantic.
For the time being we do have to keep looking to the west for our cold weather, if the Arctic kicks out a powerful front we will see a prolonged cold period, so all hope is not lost.
The ECM is producing the colder outlook over the next week, with an area of cold air across the United Kingdom, which would bring a risk of wintry showers to the United Kingdom for next weekend.
It continues to hint at a colder outlook as the ECM runs out, bringing a unity between the weather charts, as we push closer to Christmas. We’ll ensure to keep the posts coming, to ensure you are kept updated throughout.
The CFS still suggesting snow risk for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day, but remember this chart comes with a Caution.
The CFS model is different to any other operational weather forecasting model.
The systems works by taking reanalysis data (NCEP Reanalysis 2) and ocean conditions from GODAS (Global Ocean data Assimilation). Both of these data sets are for the previous day, and so you should be aware that before initialisation the data is already one day old.
Caution should be employed when using the forecasts made by the CFS. However, it is useful when monitored daily in assessing forecasts for the coming months, the confidence levels in these forecasts and in an assessment of how such long range models perform.