Good Afternoon All,
I hope you have had a wonderful festive period, well as much as you could with the unfortunate position we find ourselves in, but less of that topic and more on the weather which is forecast over the next week. You may be aware already that the UK Met Office has a Yellow Weather Warning issued for Snow & Ice on Wednesday, into Thursday affecting the Midlands, Wales and Southern England, but how much of an impact are we looking at?
Wednesday 30th – Thursday 31st December
The 30th we’ll see a band of rain moving south into Scotland, which will bring sleet to coastal areas, with snow falling further inland. As this band is forced south by an incoming area of cold air, we’ll see the band hitting a warmer edge ahead of it, bringing sleet to the majority of areas on Thursday morning, but as the cold air undercuts this area of precipitation, you’ll see the back-edge turning back into snow. Areas above 200m are set to see an accumulation with 2-5cm being the conservative estimate, with 10-15cm being possible.
As this band does move south we will continue to see wintry showers following behind, with the mixture of rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain, with hail not looking to make much of an appearance. The new area of cold air following in behind will bring a very cold night though especially to Scotland, an air temperature of -8°C is forecast with the wind chill approaching -15°C.
Friday 1st January
The morning already indicated to be cold by the previous paragraph and it certainly will be. All areas of the UK excluding East Anglia and London, will see frost development, with hard frosts being seen for northern regions. The wind chill will be bitter especially for the early birds, with the average temperature being -6°C, whilst the lowest is set to be -13°C in Scotland. These low temperatures brings the risk of heavy snowfall to the south coastline, and parts of SW England. I do expect a weather warning to go live for Friday, if the charts continue to produce this outcome or similar.
The late morning into the early afternoon will struggle to feel much higher than 0°C, with the bitter Arctic in full control of our weather. Further snowfall is expected over Scotland and Northern Ireland with sudden precipitation development. SE England and East Anglia will see an area of precipitation moving in from the east, this will be an incoming system from Central Europe, bringing warmer air so as the precipitation first makes it move, it will fall as snow, but as that warmer air flows in behind, it will rapidly turn to sleet then rain, whilst allowing the temperatures to rise to 6°C for East Anglia.
Saturday 2nd – Sunday 3rd January
Will see this area of precipitation grow and intensify on it’s path west, but we will see cold air from the north-east showing it’s strength forcing cold air across the UK, bringing further bitterly cold spells, plenty more snowfall for Wales, Northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The uncertainty as normal lies with the Midlands and Southern England. The slow-line will be the key point to watch again, but we can expect areas over 150m to see accumulations, with further flurries to lower levels, with possible accumulatios of up-to 5cm.
Sunday it would be a surprise if ice warnings are not in force for Wales, Northern Ireland, NW England and Scotland, if not a cold weather warning being put into place. We will see a full easterly flow, not near the same strength as the 2018 “Beast of the East” yet, but that is another story for another day. Further snow is expected across all areas of the UK. East Midlands, East Anglia and London is expected to see sleet, whilst elsewhere snow is on the cards, and heavy at times.
The forecast seen above is based on the WRF (9KM) weather chart. The chart run being: Monday 28th December 2020 (00:00). This forecast is likely to change, but updates will be issued, along with the Forecast Page updating more regular, approximately 6 times a day.