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Christmas Day – 8 Days To Go

Good Evening,

Each year the big question comes in to weather companies across the United Kingdom, Will it be a White Christmas? The answer can never be a straight cut Yes, or No. As you will be aware weather can change in an instance leaving forecasters scrambling to pick up facts and issue warnings to meet the changes.

This year provides the same story although we have the data swaying more commonly towards a Yes, but not for all. The GFS has provided some very mixed signals which has led to some very positive vibes from those on the social media channels, wishing for laying snow on Christmas day, however the previous two runs have begun to move towards the suggestion of the Met Office yesterday, which shows warmer air across much of the United Kingdom, with the Artic air sitting over Scotland and struggling to push further south.

However the ECMWF the European Model has been showing increasingly strengthening signals that Christmas will be cold with a decent risk for snow. Just a couple of days back the ECMWF suggested a “Beast From The East” scenario, but this would be caused by an area of high pressure blocking any westerly flow leading to a lack of precipitation. This story has begun to change to a north-easterly, and at points a complete northerly, these two scenarios are great for snowfall, as precipitation moving in from the south will meet a body of cold air and near instantly turn to snow. The cold Arctic flow will also provide a sufficient base to allow snow to settle.

Moving into the GFS Ensembles, the general consensus is there is still very much great potential for a cold wintry day for much of the United Kingdom, Southern England suffers a defeat leading to mainly rain on this run. There will be moderate precipitation spreading across Southern England, Midlands and East of England which would cause disruption if it was to fall as snow. The Canadian models produces a similar outcome.

As always we will be here keeping an eye and updating when possible.

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